Ahead of the 2020 elections, survey data indicates that independents
and low-income Republicans could be moving toward Democrats.
WASHINGTON–(BUSINESS WIRE)–The media narrative heading into the 2020 presidential election has
emphasized divisions within the Democratic Party between moderates and
progressives on economic policy. However, a report released today by the
Democracy Fund Voter Study Group titled, “On the Money: How Americans’
Economic Views Define — and Defy — Party Lines,” shows that Democrats
are largely unified on economic policy, while Republicans are more
divided.
In the report, co-authors Lee Drutman, Vanessa Williamson, and Felicia
Wong explore how American voters explain why some people are rich and
others are poor, what effects wealthy people and corporations have on
society, and how narratives about wealth and poverty relate to their
economic policy preferences.
Among the report’s key findings:
Views on Wealth and Inequality
-
Partisans are deeply divided on narratives explaining wealth and
poverty. Republicans generally attribute economic fortunes to hard
work and talent and see the wealthy in a more positive light.
Democrats, on the other hand, generally emphasize an unfair economy
and the negative effects of wealth and corporate power. -
About one in five Republicans hold economic views more in line with
the Democratic Party than their own party. Lower-income Republicans
are substantially more economically progressive than higher-income
Republicans, and two-thirds (67 percent) of economically progressive
Republicans are women. -
About one in 10 Democrats hold economic views more in line with the
Republican Party. These voters are not especially different from other
Democrats in terms of income or gender. Rather, their concerns about
social issues such as immigration, religious liberty, and crime are
more in line with Republicans.
Impacts on Voting Behavior
-
Between 2016 and 2018, the most sizeable shift in the electorate came
from economically progressive independents (which constitute 7 percent
of the 2018 electorate). About half (48 percent) voted for Hillary
Clinton in the 2016 presidential election, but in the 2018 midterm
elections, nearly two-thirds (64 percent) voted for the Democratic
candidate in their congressional district. -
Republicans with economically progressive views constitute 7 percent
of the total 2018 electorate and are less likely to say they will vote
for President Trump in 2020 than Republicans in the economic
mainstream of their party. One in 10 said they will vote for the
Democratic candidate in 2020, and 19 percent were undecided. -
Democrats on the economic right constitute about 4 percent of the
total 2018 electorate. Nearly one-third (29 percent) said they will
vote for Trump in 2020.
“We found a strong correlation between the stories Americans tell
themselves about how the economy works, their policy preferences and
their voting behavior,” said Felicia Wong, president and C.E.O. of the
Roosevelt Institute. “One in five Republican voters, mostly
lower-income, buy the progressive story on economic policy, but their
votes have yet to reflect these values.”
“When it comes to economic views, Democrats are generally united and
Republicans are more divided,” said Vanessa Williamson, fellow in
Governance Studies at the Brookings Institution. “When it comes to
voting, we haven’t seen that divide yet. But independents seem to be
moving in the direction of the Democrats.”
The Democracy Fund Voter Study Group is a research collaboration of
leading analysts and scholars from across the political spectrum. The
full report can be found at www.voterstudygroup.org,
along with other research from the Voter Study Group.
Contacts
Jack D’Amato
[email protected]
(404)
995-4500
