Longitudinal Study Uncovers Potential Support “Ceiling” for President
Trump and Whether Voters Prioritize Issue Positions or Demographics in a
2020 Candidate
WASHINGTON–(BUSINESS WIRE)–The Democracy Fund Voter Study Group, a research collaboration of
leading analysts and scholars from across the political spectrum, has
released initial findings from its 2019 VOTER Survey, which captured how
Americans are feeling about President Trump’s first two years in office.
Notably, while a majority of Obama-Trump voters still have a favorable
opinion of the president, they are more likely than other voters to have
shifted away from him.
The data also show that 85 percent of Americans have not changed their
mind about the president in the last two years — holding either a
consistently positive (36 percent) or consistently negative (48 percent)
view of him. Collectively, only half (49 percent) of Americans have said
they have a favorable opinion of the president at some point in the last
two years. The stability of President Trump’s ratings have been cited as
a “floor,” but these 49 percent might be his support “ceiling.”
These and other findings from the survey of more than 6,700 Americans
are captured in a new brief, “Two
Years In: How Americans’ Views Have — and Have Not — Changed Midway
Through Trump’s Term,” authored by Rob Griffin, Research Director at
the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group.
Additional findings relevant to the president’s agenda and the 2020
election include:
Presidential Candidates:
-
Americans say that it is more important for the next president to have
particular policy positions than particular demographic
characteristics. For example, Americans say it’s more important that
the next president advocate for racial and ethnic minorities (69
percent) than that they are a person of color (19 percent). -
However, when asked about presidential characteristics, partisan
divides become apparent. Democrats are about five times more likely
than Republicans to say that it is important the next president is a
person of color. Additionally, almost four in 10 (39 percent) black
Americans say that it is “important” that the next president is a
person of color, which is higher than any other racial or ethnic group.
Issue Priority:
-
Democrats and Republicans prioritize different issues and the partisan
gap is largest on climate change. Healthcare also shows strong
partisan divides, with 84 percent of Democrats naming it a high
priority versus only 52 percent of Republicans. -
As the Democratic nomination contest takes shape, Democrats say their
highest priority policies after healthcare are the environment (75
percent say the issue is “very important”), climate change (73
percent), education (73 percent), racial equality (69 percent), and
Medicare (69 percent). By contrast, Republicans’ top priorities are
the economy (79 percent), jobs (72 percent), and terrorism (69
percent).
“Two years into President Trump’s term, attitudes toward him remain
remarkably consistent, with widespread support among Republicans but
little sign that his popularity has expanded beyond his base,” said
Griffin. “If you added up every person who ever had a favorable view of
him, it would still be less than half the country. Heading into 2020,
this might be a ceiling for him.”
The full report can be found at www.voterstudygroup.org,
along with other research from the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group.
Contacts
Jack D’Amato
[email protected]
(404)
995-4500
